Bioclimatic and soil determinants of buckwheat cultivation prospects under global warming: A case study of the Ukrainian Polissya and Forest-Steppe
Abstract
The spatial restructuring of agricultural production under climate change necessitates a detailed understanding of crop-specific responses to both climatic and edaphic conditions. Buckwheat ( Fagopyrum esculentum Moench), known for its short growing season, low input requirements, and high nutritional value, is a promising candidate for climate-resilient agriculture in Eastern Europe. The present study undertakes an evaluation of the present and future suitability of land for buckwheat cultivation across two primary agroecological zones in Ukraine: Polissya and the Forest-Steppe. This evaluation is conducted utilising integrated spatial modelling techniques. Historical yield data from the CROPGRIDS v1.08 dataset, 19 bioclimatic predictors from WorldClim, and nine soil parameters from SoilGrids were harmonized at 2.5 arc-minute resolution. To reduce multicollinearity among predictors, a combined approach of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering was applied, followed by multiple linear regression using Box–Cox transformation to normalize skewed distributions. The model explained 65% of the variance in harvested area and revealed that buckwheat yield was positively associated with mean diurnal temperature range (BIO2), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (BIO8), and soil bulk density (bdod), and negatively associated with annual precipitation (BIO12), low winter temperatures (BIO11), and high soil nitrogen content. These results underscore buckwheat's preference for temperate, moderately dry climates and well-structured, moderately fertile soils. Projections made under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), ranging from SSP1-2.6, a sustainability-focused pathway, to SSP5-8.5, a high-emission scenario, have consistently shown a northward shift in suitability between 2021 and 2080. However, the total suitable area is projected to decline, particularly under pessimistic scenarios, with the steepest reductions observed under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5. Despite improved thermal conditions in Polissya, soil limitations such as acidity and low humus content restrict the expansion of buckwheat cultivation. Analysis of variance showed that SSP scenario choice accounted for 13% of the variation in predicted suitability, time period for 6%, and their interaction for 2%, while the majority (79%) was attributed to local spatial heterogeneity. These findings confirm that while global climate pathways shape the overall trajectory of change, local soil and landscape factors remain dominant in determining actual suitability. The observed reduction in spatial variability and increasing homogeneity of negative changes indicate rising vulnerability of buckwheat agroecosystems. The study highlights the need for anticipatory adaptation strategies, including the spatial reallocation of buckwheat crops, soil improvement in emerging zones, diversification of crop portfolios, and expansion of agro-insurance mechanisms. It demonstrates the value of geospatial mode l ling as a decision-support tool for regional planning and agricultural resilience. Without targeted interventions, the cumulative effects of climate change and edaphic constraints may significantly reduce buckwheat’s role in future food systems, despite its ecological and nutritional advantages. Spatially explicit adaptation pathways should therefore integrate climate projections, soil data, and socioeconomic considerations to ensure sustainable development of buckwheat production under global change.References
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